Phil Hughes

Perception is difficult to quantify, but it is fairly safe to say that at this point, Phillip Hughes has become underrated. Off to a poor start to the 2008 season, with an 8.82 ERA through his first four starts, Hughes has become the object of scorn throughout the ever-reputable New York media machine. On April 14th, New York Post columnist Joel Sherman complained that Hughes and fellow starter Ian Kennedy were not living up the standards expected of them entering the season. Again, Sherman wrote this on April 14th. On April 14th of last season, Albert Pujols was batting .186, Brandon Webb had an ERA of 5.21, and Alex Rodriquez was on pace to hit 103 home runs.

Beyond the impossibly small sample size of the 16 1/3 innings that Hughes has pitched this season, Hughes’ struggles in the early-going are exasperated by comparisons to his teammate, media darling Joba Chamberlain. Chamberlain was dominant out of the bullpen last season, and has continued his success into 2008, thus far striking out nine against three walks in eight innings without allowing a run. However, Chamberlain also has yet to start a game in the Major Leagues, something that Hughes has now done 17 times, despite being nearly 10 months younger than Chamberlain.

The two pitchers came up through the Yankees’ farm system together, with each of them pitching at all three levels of the minors, as well as with the big-league club in 2007. However, upon the tandem’s arrival in the Bronx last season, the decision was handed down from above that Hughes would start and Chamberlain would be resigned to the bullpen. Responsible for just 10-25 pitches on any given night, Chamberlain pounded the strike zone and thrived in relief, striking out 34 batters against six walks in 24 innings. Hughes, meanwhile, made 13 league-average starts as a 21-year-old facing Major League hitters for the first time.

Despite lacking Joba’s hilariously dominant strikeout rate, Hughes’ 2007 season should be considered a success. He came through the minor leagues as a starter, and his abilities translated into Major League success. However, going from the absurd degree of domination that Hughes demonstrated in the Minors to merely being average at the Major League level is not something that impresses the mainstream media. Hughes won’t be 22 until June 24th. People seem to forget that when Johann Santana was 22, he had a career ERA of 5.90 with a 92:70 K:BB ratio through 129 2/3 innings.

In all likelihood, Joba Chamberlain will be very good starting pitcher in the Major Leagues. However, based on their minor and Major League performances and usage patterns to date, I think that Phil Hughes is the better bet. Joba has been insanely dominant over the course of his young career, but has never thrown more than 35 pitches in an outing. The lower expected pitch counts of relievers allows them to throw harder, on average, per pitch and worry less about pacing themselves over the course of a game. In that regard, Hughes is ahead of Chamberlain is his development. Additionally, Hughes is two-thirds of a year younger than Chamberlain, but has thrown more than three times as many professional innings. So while Joba can look into the crowd and see 50,000 cheering fans rocking ‘Joba Rules’ tee-shirts, Hughes has somehow slid under the radar as he positions himself to become one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball.